by We begin with Allah’s blessed name, we praise him and we glorify him as he is ought to be praised and glorified and we pray for peace and blessings on all his noble messengers from our father Adam, on Moses, on Jesus the son of virgin Mary and especially to the last of them all the blessed Prophet Muhammad Sallallahu Ta’ala Alayhi Wa Sallam.
INTRODUCTION
This document is an attempt to explain my reasons for not opting to migrate to the west and after thorough research and gathering globally-accepted evidence, I feel obligated to share my findings with everyone in search of truth. Though it takes courage to accept every reference-bound statement in this document, giving it a read is effortless. Indeed, I tried my best to back my every statement with a widely accepted reference and sometimes with simple logic.
My diversified research on all fronts led me to broadly divide this monograph into two parts, namely;
- Falling Economy and Reserve Currency Shift
- War and Islamic Eschatology
Allow me to only brief the first part for now as the documentation required in the second part is more intensive and requires escalated eschatological awareness. Research by global economists, strategists, and historians was summed up and explained using the work of Ray Dalio, an American billionaire, macro-economic investor, and founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund firm. He studied the last 500 years of history and changing economies to devise a pattern and explain how to deal with changing world order. His logical statements used in this document are backed by the articles published in top-notch newspapers and magazines like Forbes, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal, among others, so there is no doubt left to ponder.
FALLING ECONOMY AND RESERVE CURRENCY SHIFT
Before we begin, do note that USA’s and Canada’s economies and currency are hugely interdependent and even a percentage change in one’s economy reflects in another’s economy. Furthermore, the following statement
“The United States and Canada share deeply integrated economies and enjoy the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world. The almost 400,000 people and some $2 billion worth of goods and services that cross our border every day are a testament to the strength of our economic relationship”
released by the White House confirms the same [01]. Since NATO is USA-centered, it’s termed as “Allied US” by the economists and international media. Infact, as we mention the US in this document, we refer to not just the United States of America but the ‘Allied US’.
Firstly, let’s understand what led the United States to become a superpower at the end of the 20th century. It was in 1971 that the United States got broke as they were spending a lot more money than their income by writing a lot more paper money cheques than they had gold in the bank to exchange for it. People started turning in their paper money to banks for gold, as it became obvious that the US couldn’t keep its promises for all the existing paper money. This further led other people and countries holding dollars to rush and exchange dollars for gold money before gold reserves run out. Recognizing this, then-president Nixon, on 15th august, suspended the convertibility of the dollar claiming to defend the strength of the dollar against the speculators. In other words, they publicly announced they won’t be fulfilling the promise. This meant that the stock market would fall too, but surprisingly, it rose 25% that day due to Currency Devaluation. Further, Nixon broke the link between paper money and gold to keep spending more than what they could earn. This led to inflation and was termed by media as “The Nixon Shock” which, Wikipedia states
“The Nixon Shock was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon in 1971, in response to increasing inflation, the most significant of which were wage and price freezes, surcharges on imports, and the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold”.[02]
To our surprise, the exact thing happened even in 1933 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt when they broke the link of paper money to gold in order to keep spending more than what they earned, simply by printing more money. Since there was an increase in paper money without the increase in the country’s wealth, this led to inflation.
Apart from the United States, this exact case even happened in Great Britain, Ireland, and other countries several times when they printed more money than they earn. In recent years, this could be seen in 2008, when the US printed more money to relieve the mortgage-driven debt prices and again did the same in 2020 to relieve the pandemic-driven economic crisis.
Ray Dalio studies economic and geopolitical history to devise a pattern of how the world order changes. The main things driving a change in World Order are
- Inability to overcome debt as mentioned above.
- Internal conflicts due to growing gaps in wealth and values hence leading to polarization.
- Increasing external conflict between the rising great power and the leading great power.
This same pattern repeated several times over many years and the last time this sequence happened was after World War 2 when the current World Order began. The World order is a governing system of people dealing with each other. Civil Wars and International wars are known to change this world order as they lead to changes in treaties and constitutions and these wars happen when revolutionary new forces defeat weak old orders, as was the case when
- Russia got rid of its old order and established a new one with the Russian revolution in 1971 which ended in 1991.
- China began its current internal order in 1949 when the Chinese Communist Party won the civil war.
The current world order is also known as the American World Order formed after the allied victory in World War 2 and, in 1944 the new world monetary system was laid out in the ‘Bretton Woods Agreement’ and established the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. These changes, according to Ray Dalio follows a timeless universal cycle that he calls ‘The Big Cycle’
This cycle depicts the series of events that had happened throughout history which led to new world order. The Big Cycle runs over 250 years with a 10-15 year transition period or overlap between the two cycles. On drawing parallels, one will find the American empire to be one stage away from losing to the new world order.
America has already reached the top of the cycle and its downfall is clearly visible. The US has been printing a lot more paper money than it should have. Investors’ faith in the Dollar’s convertibility is falling and that is strengthening the Yuan and Ruble. A debt crisis is inevitable and a financial burst is soon expected. To quote Forbes magazine,
- INEVITABILITY OF DEBT CRISIS – Forbes
“The downturn won’t come in 2022 but could arrive as early as 2023. If the Fed avoids recession in 2023, then look for a more severe slump in 2024 or 2025.”
Though 2022 is unlikely to host a recession, 2023 and 2024 are extremely risky. The Federal Reserve will start tapering its quantitative stimulus soon, and sometime in mid-2022, it will begin raising short-term interest rates. The economy reacts with a time lag of about one year, plus or minus. The greatest risk in the near term is that the Fed realizes that much of the recent inflation is long-lasting rather than transitory. They will then hit the brakes. Because of the time lag, the Fed may decide to stomp down harder on the brakes, triggering a recession.
If the Fed avoids an over-reaction recession, it risks not bringing inflation down at all. The longer the Fed waits, the more work they will need to do later. We’ll still have massive fiscal stimulus plus the lagged effects of past monetary stimulus. Public anger over inflation will provoke a stronger Fed response by 2025 at the latest, but probably earlier.”
“So businesses should enjoy their gains in 2022 while developing contingency plans to be ready for the nearly-inevitable recession.”[03]
This clearly mentions how inevitable the debt crisis is. To further understand the prevailing debt crisis, The Balance states
- DEBT CRISIS – The Balance
“In the short run, the economy and voters benefit from deficit spending because it drives economic growth and stability. The federal government pays for defense equipment, health care, building construction, and contracts with private businesses. New employees are then hired and they spend their salaries on necessities and wants, like gas, groceries, new clothes, and more. This consumer spending boosts the economy. As part of the components of GDP, federal government spending contributes around 7%.11
Over the long term, debt holders could demand larger interest payments, because the debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and this high ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) tells investors that the country might have problems repaying them. That’s a newer—and worrying—occurrence for the U.S. Back in 1988, the national debt was only half of what the U.S. produced that year.12
Weakened demand for U.S. Treasurys could increase interest rates and that would slow the economy.
Lower demand for Treasurys also puts downward pressure on the dollar because its value is tied to the value of Treasury securities. As the dollar value declines, foreign holders get paid back in a currency that is worth less than when they invested, which further decreases demand. Many of these foreign holders would become more likely to invest in their own countries. At that point, the U.S. would have to pay higher interest payments.13
Congress knows a debt crisis isn’t far away. In less than 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund won’t have enough to cover the retirement benefits promised to people born from 1946 to 1964.14 That could mean higher taxes once the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries.” [04]
- SEVERITY OF DEBT CRISIS – Cochrane, Research Economist from Stanford
“The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level” is the title of Mr. Cochrane’s next book, to be published in the fall. It’s a challenge to monetarism, the theory of controlling money as the chief method of stabilizing the economy. The new theory holds that when the overall amount of government debt is more than people expect the government to repay, we see inflation. The price of everything goes up, and the value of the dollar declines.
How does this work? “The U.S. government has $20 trillion of debt outstanding,” Mr. Cochrane says. “That means, over the long run, people must expect taxes to exceed spending by $20 trillion to repay the debt.” But if they think the government will be able to pay back only $10 trillion in today’s money, “people will try to get rid of their government debt fast before it is worthless. They try to sell it in order to buy other things,” driving up the price of everything else. “That keeps going until all prices have doubled—until the $20 trillion promise is only worth $10 trillion at today’s prices.”
Why hasn’t “fiscal inflation” of this kind happened sooner? After all, the government has been borrowing money, as Mr. Cochrane puts it, “like the proverbial sailor”—the drunken one—for decades.” [05]
- DEBT CRISIS –The Wall Street Journal
“The national debt this month reached $30 trillion. Not only is this the largest debt in U.S. history in dollar terms, but the ratio of debt to gross domestic product is 119%—the largest it’s ever been. And things are only getting worse. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the mammoth debt-to-GDP ratio will double over the next three decades. The Highway Trust Fund will likely become insolvent in 2027. Medicare Part A will run out of money in the fiscal year 2026 and Social Security will go bust in fiscal 2033.”
“Some policymakers and economists maintain that sustained harmful inflation can never happen here. They argue that because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, investors will always want U.S. debt and the Treasury will always be able to roll that debt over as it matures. But “always” is a long time.”
“The strength of the American economy was one of the main reasons the U.S. won the Cold War. It supported a defense buildup that the Soviet Union couldn’t match. But today, Russia’s economy supports a debt-to-GDP ratio of only 19%; China’s ratio is 68%.
Those who believe there can never be a debt crisis should look no further than the last financial crisis. For years, policymakers told us that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest players in the housing market, would always remain solvent and strong. They were wrong. Fannie and Freddie failed, the housing market crashed, and the economy was brought to its knees. Fannie and Freddie weren’t problems until they were. Just as the national debt may never be a problem until it is.
We’ve had years of denial, delay, and neglect in confronting the unsustainable national debt. Today’s high rate of inflation is simply a foreshadowing of what could come if the U.S. is forced to monetize the bulk of its national debt. Reduced economic growth, diminished national defense, insolvent social safety-net programs, and recession loom as well. The 9/11 Commission concluded the national security establishment suffered from a “failure of imagination.” Let’s hope the same doesn’t prove to be true when it comes to financial security.” [06]
- IMMIGRANTS AS SCAPEGOATS – Bloomberg
“Also, the Fed purchased $4.8 trillion in Treasuries since the pandemic commenced in early 2020 as its assets surged from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion.
Foreigners have also been important buyers and own $7.7 trillion, or 31%, of Treasuries outstanding. They’ll no doubt buy more as they seek a haven after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Also, Asians are robust producers and exporters but anemic consumers. So, the resulting “saving glut” has resulted in a $975 billion U.S. current-account deficit that is financed by increased foreign ownership of U.S. assets, including Treasuries.
The aging Baby Boomers are another source of funds to finance federal deficits. As people age, they shift their portfolios to less-risky investments, including U.S. government obligations.”
“We simulated the interest costs-to-GDP ratio over the next 10 years with interest rates on Treasury debt ranging from 2% to 8%. In each calculation, we assumed 4% annual nominal GDP growth, 2% real plus 2% inflation. We also assumed a $1 trillion federal deficit in each of the next 10 years. With a 2% interest rate, the debt-to-GDP ratio actually falls slightly from 2% to 1.7% in 2032. But with an 8% interest rate, the ratio jumps from 7.5% to 12.9% in a decade with the rate of increase climbing over time. So very high-interest rates would generate a debt bomb.
To get to those high rates would probably leap inflation to double-digits or a nosedive in confidence in the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. And the crisis would need to last long enough to roll over the present six-year average debt maturity to those higher rates.
Of course, as the Fed hikes interest rates and the interest costs of financing the federal debt compound, Congress and whoever is occupying the White House might get scared enough to doubt the free lunch promised by Modern Monetary Theory and curtail federal spending and deficits. As usual, however, it will probably take a shock to stimulate meaningful action.”[07]
Learning all this will make one wonder about the time Russia chose to attack Ukraine. As the situations start worsening each day, the US with its crippled economy is burdened with threats on all fronts. Allied Russia and China both are prepared to go after the US and take the opportunity of their dying economy to thrash their world order and establish a new one as it had happened over the centuries. Precisely, the last and obvious stage of “The Big Cycle”.
- RUBLE AS RESERVE CURRENCY – The Conversation
“The rouble has strengthened against the US dollar since the announcement from ₽107 to ₽99. And if European nations accede to Russia’s terms, the demand for roubles will increase and accordingly further strengthen the currency’s value in the foreign exchange market.
The moves put pressure on European countries to backslide on enforcing financial sanctions, since using roubles would presumably force them to buy the currency from sanctioned Russian banks. And it can be seen as a ploy to split Germany and Italy off from the sanctions alliance since they are particularly dependent on Russian gas.
The early indications are that divide and rule may not be working: the Germans have announced they will reduce their dependency on Russian gas to as little as 10% (compared to over 50% today) by summer 2024. But since Russia is implicitly threatening to cut off Europe’s gas supply immediately unless it starts paying in roubles, the more pressing question is what the ramifications look like today.”
“The demand can be seen as an extension of Russia’s attempt (along with China) to “de-dollarise” its economy, which has been ongoing since western countries introduced sanctions on Russia over Crimea in 2014. This has included increasingly trading with countries such as India and China in either euros or local currencies; reducing central bank holdings of US dollar reserves, and cutting dollar assets out of its national sovereign wealth fund. China has meanwhile developed an international payments messaging system called CIPS, which is a way of avoiding using the western Swift system.
China and Russia are uncomfortable with the prevailing reserve-currency status of the US dollar, which means it is the main currency used in international trade and held by central banks. Important commodities such as oil, and global services such as air transport, are priced in the American currency. It also makes it cheaper for the US to borrow on international financial markets, giving it an advantage over other countries.”
“Another issue is that it is easy and relatively cheap for countries around the world to borrow in dollars, but if the value of the dollar relative to other countries rises, the borrower’s debts become worth more in their currency. The dollar is liable to rise when, for example, the Federal Reserve decides to put up interest rates, so countries with dollar-denominated debts are at the mercy of US monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Saudis have been negotiating with the Chinese about potentially pricing their oil trading in yuan instead of dollars. As Saudi’s largest oil customer, that would take another bite out of the dollar’s importance as the reserve currency.” [08]
- DECLINING FAITH IN PETRO-DOLLAR – The Bitcoin Magazine
The views mentioned in this article are of Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer at Human Rights Foundation. His articles on Bitcoin and the future of currency get published by big-time international media companies. In a similar article published in the biggest cryptocurrency magazine, he says,
“More and more countries are denominating oil trade in other currencies, like euros, yuan, and rubles, partly because they fear reliance on a weakening system, and partly because the U.S. government continues to use the dollar as a weapon. The American sanction system is incredibly powerful, as it can cut enemies off from the SWIFT payment network or from the World Bank or IMF. As the Financial Times reported, “by using American banks as a cudgel against Russia, Joe Biden has shown a willingness to weaponize the U.S. financial system against foes, continuing a tactic honed during the Obama years and dramatically ramped up under Donald Trump.”
This month, President Biden publicly denounced the Nord Stream2 Pipeline project, which would build on the momentum Russian President Vladimir Putin already has with Rosneft, pricing more than 5% of the world’s oil in euros by connecting Europe and Russia. Team Biden reportedly wants to “kill” the project, and its officials have commented that dollar primacy remains “hugely important” to the administration and that “it’s in our national interest because of the funding cost advantage it provides, [because] it allows us to absorb shocks… and gives us enormous geopolitical leverage.” This is a striking indication of just how important the petrodollar system remains politically to the U.S., 50 years after its creation, despite critics who say the world uses dollars for pure market reasons.
Many countries want to escape from U.S. financial control, and this desire is accelerating global de-dollarization. For example, China and Russia are, as of last year, transacting in dollars just 33% of the time, versus just 98% seven years ago. China is expanding oil trading denominated in yuan, and many worry about the Chinese Communist Party’s new “DC/EP,” or digital yuan project, being a ploy for the increased international use of the yuan. Meanwhile, former European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has said “it is absurd that Europe pays for 80 percent of its energy import bill — worth 300 billion euros a year — in U.S. dollars when only roughly 2 percent of our energy imports come from the United States.”, While the dollar is still dominant, trends point to other major currencies gaining traction in the coming years.”[09]
- FALL OF DOLLAR AS RESERVE CURRENCY – Business Insider
“China’s yuan eventually could develop into a reputable global reserve currency, but Beijing would have to drastically loosen its grip on the economy, according to a Chinese economy expert, who also sees some upside to a downgrade in the US dollar’s status.
Western sanctions that froze much of Russia’s foreign currency holdings since its invasion of Ukraine have underscored the dollar’s power while also highlighting the risks of relying on it heavily.
“The use of Chinese currency will inevitably expand and play a much bigger role in the world,” Baizhu Chen, professor of clinical finance and business economics at the University of Southern California, told Insider. “Some countries feel their economies could be held hostage to US policies because the dollar is dominant, and countries want to diversify their risk.“
Already, upwards of 70 central banks hold some yuan as a reserve currency, while many African countries and some in the Middle East regularly use it for transactions, he noted. Meanwhile, other central banks have diversified their holdings over the last 20 years, reducing the dollar’s share of global reserves, the International Monetary Fund said in a report Thursday.
And in recent weeks, more efforts to pull back from the dollar have emerged. Saudi Arabia and China are looking to use the yuan in a new oil deal. Russia and India are in talks to revive a ruble-rupee ledger. Moscow has also demanded Europe use rubles to pay for its natural gas and may even turn to bitcoin for payment.
“Were the dollar to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency, it would raise interest rates for our historically large debt relative to the economy,” warned Tomas Philipson, former Acting Chairman for the White House Council of Economic Advisers. That means American consumers and businesses would face higher borrowing costs. Prices for imports would also likely rise.”[10]
- WORLD GOVERNMENT SUMMIT – CNBC
“Are we ready for the new world order?”
The provocative title of the panel that lead off the ambitiously named World Government Summit in UAE last week was framed to suggest that new global order is emerging and the world is not ready for it. Some excerpts of the summit include,
“Our Mideast partners have lost confidence in America’s commitment to global leadership or competence for it following last year’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal. They are also experiencing whiplash from a Trump administration that trashed the nuclear deal with Iran to a Biden administration they feel is pursuing it without sufficiently factoring in Tehran’s regional aggression.
In all my many travels to the Mideast over the years, I have never heard this level of frustration from Mideast government officials with American policymakers.
That said, they are watching Ukraine with fascination because a Ukrainian victory — with a strong, united West behind it — would force a rethink about U.S. commitment and competence and shift the trajectory of declining transatlantic influence and relevance. Conversely, a Putin victory — even at a huge cost to Russians and Ukrainians alike — would accelerate Western decline as an effective global actor.”
“Every democratic attempt in the Arab world has turned ideological or tribal, so I’m not sure it is something we can work out successfully,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, told the World Government Summit. He sees the issues between democracy and authoritarianism as not binary, but ones of governance and the solution being “something in the middle of both.”
President Joe Biden’s decision to release on Thursday an “unprecedented” 180 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was an acknowledgment that America’s traditional oil-producing partners were not prepared to help him. The decision came hours after OPEC ignored calls from western politicians to pump oil more quickly – and to resist any suggestion they should remove Russia from the organization.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited New Delhi this week to thank India for its refusal to join sanctions against Russia, an approach shared by Brazil, Mexico, Israel, and the UAE. Said Lavrov, “We will be ready to supply to India any goods which India wants to buy.”[11]
- INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE RENMIBI (YUAN) VIA BILATERAL SWAP LINES – ATLANTIC COUNCIL
In addition to the CMIM, China has also entered into bilateral currency swap agreements with 41 countries around the world from 2009 to 2020 – with the total amount exceeding RMB 3.5 trillion ($554 billion). While these BSLs can be used to meet RMB (or other local currency) liquidity needs, the motivation behind these agreements has been to settle bilateral trade and investment transactions in RMB (or other local currencies) in order to gradually reduce the reliance on the USD in bilateral transactions both for political reasons and to avoid the volatility of the dollar value of local currencies due to changes in US Fed monetary policy.
Of particular interest is the network of BSLs China has developed with several Asian countries—South Korea (RMB 180 billion or $29 billion), Singapore (RMB 150 billion or $24 billion), Indonesia (RMB 100 billion or $16 billion), Malaysia (RMB 80 billion or $13 billion) and Thailand (RMB 70 billion or $11 billion). The motivation here is to foster local currency settlement (LCS) arrangements of the bilateral trade of each of these countries with China. Indeed, Indonesia has announced that the LCS has cut the country’s USD exposure by $2.53 billion in 2021 and will increase by another 10% in 2022. Moreover, as Indonesia’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said “the LCS will create a financial safety net for financial transactions between countries and reduce the vulnerability risks due to global economic shocks”. In short, BSLs promoting local currency settlements have made a modest start but are indicative of a larger and long-term trend toward reducing reliance on the USD in international transactions.[12]
- THE SHIFTING SAND DUNES OF GEOPOLITICS – THE NATION
“The world is passing through a transitional phase, where the existing world order is under stress, politically, economically and militarily. Unipolarity has been formally challenged by a clearly visible strong Sino-Russian pole on one hand, and a few more poles morphing in near future (five to ten years) like certain European and Asian powers. The small and mid-level countries are re-evaluating their old economic and military affiliations throughout Asia, Europe and Africa. The United States of America, after enjoying more than two decades of unfettered and absolute command in geopolitics, is misbehaving like a spoiled adult, that is not ready to adjust to the shifting dunes of reality on the global horizon. The universe moves slowly but surely, indicating a certain eastward direction that can only be altered by some disruptive events. Political philosophers and economic strategists at all significant intellectual centres should be pondering the future trajectories of the world polity and economy, and where they would find themselves if the path of the dotted curve is not altered. And then there will be a clear distinction drawn between the status-quo loving and the disruption-wishing powers.”[13]
IS WAR AROUND THE CORNER?
Though it’s clear from the timing and strategies that Russia selected to go head-on with NATO that the war is around the corner. If not a nuclear war, there will definitely be a military and financial war and I was about to quote articles and explain the same but that would be childish. Any person with the minimum required awareness who keeps themselves equipped with day-to-day happenings will be sure of this forthcoming war. Otherwise, one can gauge the obvious by googling the latest statements and actions taken by Russian officials.
CONCLUSION BASED ON THESE ARTICLES AND MY VIEWS
The whole crux of this argument revolves around the fall of the flawed economy of the west. Even though this information is sufficient enough to support the argument, I could only present the tip of the iceberg. Mainly, to link every statement with an authentic reference as the rest of the iceberg is usually twisted or not portrayed by the mainstream media. My 70% reasoning was based on Islamic Eschatology which is another iceberg I couldn’t include in this document. The reason for this is my attempt to reach even the unripened brains who could multiply the whole monograph with zero and label it as a conspiracy, just to avoid accepting the truth. Apart from the economic downfall, the rising great powers are on the way to seizing power. The declining NATO wouldn’t give up without a fight and that will definitely lead to war. This would be the first large-scale demonstration of weapons of mass destruction. The consequence of the whole situation would be the sinking of the flawed western ship politically, economically, and culturally.
The global economic collapse would re-value the currencies based on the actual gold reserves and resources a country has. Russia happens to hold more than 45% of palladium reserves and is the largest exporter of oil and natural gas.[14] In simple terms, 85% of palladium is used in the automobile industry of which around 50% is supplied by Russia. Also, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil to global markets and the second largest crude oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia.[15] Parallelly, China is ready to make its first move on Taiwan as soon as NATO gets weak and busy. Also, the US is fuelling the China-Taiwan conflict since World War 2 to avoid china from taking control over Taiwan.[16] Which is mainly because Taiwan holds 92% of the semiconductor reserves and is a key to surviving the forthcoming semiconductor chip shortage.[17] In addition to that, China overtook the US to return as India’s largest trade partner with $11.49 billion worth of goods traded in July, data released by the commerce ministry showed, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on its northern neighbour.[18] The fact that China became a major trade partner and there are 165 countries that owe a collective debt of $385 billion to China which could be paid back with a discount in Yuan is great evidence of a Reserve Currency shift. On the other hand, US-backed NATO holds the largest debt, the largest stack of falsely printed, invaluable yet hyped paper money which isn’t backed by gold reserves, and technology made using investments generated from reserve-currency leverage. These technological advancements would hit the wall as soon as the world gets de-dollarized and the existing infrastructure will get devalued.
Efforts have been made to pitch crypto-currency as the only reserve currency so they would still have unbacked money, loads of interest on that fraudulent currency, and complete control of the world order. This move was countered smartly when Russia started denominating its Oil and Gas reserves in Crypto-currency and Sino-Russian currency only. The Russian government demanded payments for oil and gas only in Rubles and incentivized ruble-based transactions for friendly countries.[19] Parallelly, The Chinese government has started signing Bilateral Currency Swap Lines with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries (147 countries) to enable Dollar-independent international trade by leveraging incentives and thereby increasing their treasury bonds.
It won’t be long before the west would lose its leverage over International Monetary economics and internal conflicts would fuel geopolitical tensions. The Petro-Dollar will collapse and the American citizens and immigrants will lose substantial amounts of wealth. Soon after, a civil-war would erupt and the whole nation will fall into a state of Anarchy. Infact, Saudi Arabia (Largest Crude Oil Exporter) realised this fact and is in active talks with Beijing (Largest Crude Oil Importer) to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market.[20] In my opinion, it would only take a little understanding of geopolitics and International monetary economics to gauge what the next two years might look like.
The whole purpose of delivering this information is not to discourage anyone from going west but to spread awareness. I believe being aware is the key to surviving any situation. One might migrate to west knowing all these and smartly capitalize on the situation, while the other might not migrate in the first place. Though my portrayal of the situation suggests my unwillingness to migrate to the west, you are free to have your own opinion and thought process. Lastly, I hope that this small yet factual work would become a contributing factor in your decision-making.
REFERENCES
- https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/10/fact-sheet-united-states-%E2%80%93-canada-relationship
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2021/11/02/no-recession-in-2022-but-watch-out-in-2023/?sh=232ad54c3555
- https://www.thebalance.com/the-u-s-debt-and-how-it-got-so-big-3305778#toc-how-the-large-us-debt-affects-the-economy
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-spending-fuels-inflation-covid-relief-pandemic-debt-federal-reserve-stimulus-powell-biden-stagflation-11645202057?mod=article_inline
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/debt-and-inflation-threaten-us-security-jerome-powell-supply-chain-federal-reserve-russia-china-defense-spending-11645565624
- www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/ballooning-u-s-debt-is-a-bomb-that-won-t-detonate
- https://theconversation.com/putins-roubles-for-gas-demand-is-no-serious-threat-to-us-dollar-reserve-status-heres-why-180007
- https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/the-hidden-costs-of-the-petrodollar
- https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/with-the-us-dollars-dominance-in-question-heres-how-chinas-yuan-could-become-a-global-reserve-currency-and-why-it-wouldnt-be-all-bad/articleshow/90462347.cms
- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/03/a-new-world-order-is-emerging-and-the-world-is-not-ready-for-it.html
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/internationalization-of-the-renmibi-via-bilateral-swap-lines/#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20the%20CMIM,3.5%20trillion%20(%24554%20billion).
- https://nation.com.pk/2022/06/28/the-shifting-sand-dunes-of-geopolitics/
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/russia-sanctions-palladium-prices-51646263033#:~:text=Russia%20produced%20an%20estimated%2074%2C000,world’s%20total%20palladium%20mine%20production
- https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-supplies-to-global-energy-markets/oil-market-and-russian-supply-2
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139
- https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/01/01/2003770517
- https://www.livemint.com/economy/china-beats-us-to-re-emerge-as-india-s-top-trading-partner-11663267543382.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/putin-says-russian-gas-must-be-paid-for-in-rubles-from-friday.html
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
YDM IS THE FUTURE.
Ma sha Allah. Very good article and thorough study of all facts.
Glad you liked it!
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Thank you very much!
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Very well rounded and detailed oriented article! Gives one a good knowledge.
Thank you very much for the feedback!
Wonderful portrayal of the current scenario, but i also feel that the economy of China is struggling a lot with the housing market collapsing to the zero covid policy, they are also suffering a huge hit in their economy, i feel that India would develop and could take advantage of this recession, but they have their focus on religious politics even though some work is done on the economy. Lastly, i feel that the Gulf would conquer this if planned correctly and may rise to new heights but everything depends on their strategies. Can’t say anything about Russia though
Thank you!
I totally agree that India will become the global hub in 3-4 years and bridge the relations between NATO and Russia-China alliance. Also, India is a neutral ground diplomatically and unlike the next global leaders (Russia or China) , English is the official language of India. This fact along with facilities like cheap labor, abundant natural resources and good climate, makes India the bridge between two major alliances of the world.
Regarding the middle east, I believe only few countries has that potential to benefit from this. Indeed, I’ll try to include this in my next blog.
Mashallah.
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### Лучшие русские сериалы смотреть бесплатно
В последнее время интерес к русским сериалам
неуклонно растет. Вдохновляющие истории,
захватывающие сюжеты и великолепная
игра актеров привлекают миллионы зрителей по всему миру.
К счастью, сейчас существует множество онлайн-платформ, где можно **смотреть русские сериалы бесплатно** и без регистрации,
наслаждаясь контентом в отличном качестве.
#### Почему русские сериалы так популярны?
Современные российские сериалы предлагают зрителям разнообразие
жанров и сюжетов. Драматические истории, исторические
реконструкции, захватывающие детективы и романтические мелодрамы — каждый зритель найдет что-то по душе.
Популярность таких сериалов объясняется несколькими факторами:
– **Качественное производство**.
За последние годы уровень съемок и сценариев в российском кино значительно вырос.
Многие русские сериалы не уступают западным проектам по качеству и глубине сюжета.
– **Актуальные темы**. Российские сериалы часто поднимают темы, близкие каждому зрителю: семейные конфликты, любовные треугольники, вопросы карьеры, поиски себя и многое другое.
– **Звездные актеры**. В ведущих проектах
снимаются самые известные и любимые актеры России, которые привлекают своей харизмой и талантом.
#### Где можно смотреть русские сериалы бесплатно?
Существует множество онлайн-платформ,
которые предлагают **смотреть лучшие русские сериалы онлайн бесплатно**.
Вот несколько популярных ресурсов:
1. **Онлайн-кинотеатры** — такие сайты предлагают широкий выбор российских сериалов в отличном качестве.
Часто у них есть разделы с новинками и хитами прошлых лет.
2. **Видео-сервисы с бесплатным доступом** —
многие популярные видеосервисы предлагают возможность бесплатного просмотра
сериального контента с минимальной рекламой.
3. **Официальные сайты телеканалов** — часто сами производители
контента выкладывают свои сериалы для бесплатного просмотра на официальных ресурсах.
#### Популярные русские сериалы для просмотра
Чтобы вам было проще выбрать, мы составили небольшой список сериалов, которые точно заслуживают вашего внимания:
1. **”Метод”** — один из самых популярных
российских детективных сериалов.
История о талантливом следователе, который использует
уникальные методы для поимки серийных убийц.
2. **”Содержанки”** — драма о жизни
светского общества, где за внешним блеском скрываются
тайны и интриги.
3. **”Ольга”** — комедийный сериал о жизни простой женщины,
которая ежедневно сталкивается с множеством проблем, но всегда находит в себе силы бороться за счастье.
4. **”Мажор”** — драматический сериал о молодом человеке, который из “золотого мальчика” превращается
в серьезного и ответственного человека, когда сталкивается с жизненными
трудностями.
5. **”Кухня”** — легендарный комедийный сериал о поварах элитного
ресторана. Легкий, смешной и невероятно динамичный, этот сериал покорил
сердца миллионов зрителей.
#### Преимущества бесплатного просмотра сериалов онлайн
Когда вы выбираете **смотреть сериалы онлайн бесплатно**,
вы получаете множество преимуществ:
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Вы можете наслаждаться просмотром прямо в
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– **Доступ к широкому ассортименту**.
Онлайн-платформы предлагают широкий выбор сериалов на любой вкус — от классики до новинок.
– **Экономия времени и денег**.
Нет необходимости тратить деньги на подписки или DVD-диски.
К тому же, благодаря продуманным рекомендациям на сайтах, вы быстро найдете сериал, который придется вам по душе.
#### Как выбрать лучший
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При таком большом разнообразии бывает сложно остановить
выбор на одном сериале. Вот несколько советов, которые помогут вам:
– **Определитесь с жанром**. Если
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интригами. Для любителей романтики лучше подойдут мелодрамы.
– **Посмотрите отзывы**. Прежде чем начать смотреть сериал, ознакомьтесь с отзывами других зрителей — это поможет избежать разочарований.
– **Следите за новинками**. Многие новинки сериалов предлагают свежие идеи и
подходы, которые могут вас приятно удивить.
### Заключение
Русские сериалы сегодня предлагают зрителям великолепный контент с разнообразными сюжетами и актуальными темами.
И самое приятное — многие из этих
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бесплатно** в хорошем качестве.
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### Лучшие русские сериалы смотреть бесплатно
Русские сериалы в последние годы завоевали
признание не только на родине, но и за ее пределами.
От драм до комедий, от детективов до
фантастики — российское телевидение радует разнообразием жанров и качественным контентом.
Если вы ищете, где можно **смотреть лучшие русские
сериалы бесплатно**, то эта статья поможет вам выбрать интересные
проекты и погрузиться в захватывающие истории.
#### Почему русские сериалы так популярны?
Российское киноиндустрия заметно
выросла за последние годы, и сериалы
стали отражением этой тенденции.
Есть несколько причин, почему многие предпочитают **смотреть русские сериалы онлайн**:
1. **Реалистичность и глубокие темы**:
Сюжеты часто затрагивают жизненные ситуации, с которыми может столкнуться каждый.
Это позволяет зрителям почувствовать себя
частью истории.
2. **Профессиональные актеры**: В российских сериалах играют талантливые актеры,
чья искренность и мастерство заставляют сопереживать персонажам.
3. **Многообразие жанров**: Среди новинок и
классики русских сериалов можно найти как легкие комедии, так и глубокие психологические драмы.
4. **Доступность онлайн**: Сегодня можно **смотреть лучшие русские сериалы бесплатно и без регистрации**
на многих популярных онлайн-платформах.
Это удобно и экономит время.
#### Топ-5 русских сериалов, которые
стоит посмотреть
1. **”Мажор”**
Этот сериал давно завоевал сердца зрителей.
История о молодом человеке, который из мажора превращается в серьезного следователя,
полна неожиданных поворотов,
драмы и детективных загадок. Идеальный выбор для любителей острых сюжетов.
2. **”Метод”**
Захватывающий криминальный триллер о гениальном следователе, который
ловит серийных убийц, привлекает внимание своим напряженным сюжетом
и мрачной атмосферой. Сериал подойдет для тех, кто любит сложные
и психологические истории.
3. **”Ольга”**
Комедийный сериал о женщине, которая старается сохранить свою семью в условиях постоянных
трудностей. Юмор и душевность этого
сериала делают его отличным
выбором для вечернего просмотра
с семьей.
4. **”Фарца”**
Драматическая история о четверых друзьях,
которые попадают в мир незаконной торговли в СССР.
Это один из лучших русских сериалов,
который передает атмосферу эпохи и показывает сложные взаимоотношения внутри общества.
5. **”Эпидемия”**
Постапокалиптический сериал,
который рассказывает о выживании людей в условиях глобальной эпидемии.
Этот проект высоко оценили не только зрители, но и
критики, а захватывающий сюжет держит в напряжении
с первой до последней серии.
#### Где смотреть русские сериалы бесплатно?
Существует множество онлайн-платформ, где можно
**смотреть русские сериалы онлайн бесплатно**:
– **YouTube**: Некоторые сериалы выкладываются официальными каналами и доступны в хорошем
качестве.
– **Кинотеатры онлайн**: Многие сайты предоставляют возможность
бесплатного просмотра русских сериалов, среди
них ivi, Okko и другие.
– **Социальные сети**: В группах и на страницах социальных сетей можно найти ссылки
на легальные трансляции сериалов.
#### Заключение
Русские сериалы — это возможность погрузиться в мир захватывающих историй,
ярких персонажей и жизненных ситуаций.
Независимо от того, предпочитаете ли вы
драмы, комедии или детективы, российское
телевидение предлагает много интересных
проектов. А самое приятное — вы можете **смотреть лучшие русские сериалы бесплатно** и наслаждаться качественным контентом в
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В последнее время интерес к русским
сериалам неуклонно растет. Вдохновляющие истории, захватывающие сюжеты и
великолепная игра актеров привлекают миллионы зрителей
по всему миру. К счастью, сейчас существует множество онлайн-платформ, где можно **смотреть русские сериалы бесплатно** и без регистрации,
наслаждаясь контентом в отличном качестве.
#### Почему русские сериалы так популярны?
Современные российские
сериалы предлагают зрителям разнообразие жанров и сюжетов.
Драматические истории, исторические реконструкции, захватывающие детективы и романтические мелодрамы —
каждый зритель найдет что-то по
душе. Популярность таких сериалов объясняется несколькими факторами:
– **Качественное производство**.
За последние годы уровень съемок и
сценариев в российском кино значительно вырос.
Многие русские сериалы не
уступают западным проектам по качеству и глубине сюжета.
– **Актуальные темы**. Российские сериалы часто поднимают темы, близкие каждому зрителю: семейные
конфликты, любовные треугольники, вопросы карьеры, поиски себя и многое другое.
– **Звездные актеры**. В ведущих
проектах снимаются самые известные и любимые
актеры России, которые привлекают своей харизмой и талантом.
#### Где можно смотреть русские сериалы
бесплатно?
Существует множество онлайн-платформ, которые предлагают **смотреть лучшие русские сериалы онлайн бесплатно**.
Вот несколько популярных ресурсов:
1. **Онлайн-кинотеатры** — такие сайты предлагают
широкий выбор российских сериалов в отличном качестве.
Часто у них есть разделы с новинками и
хитами прошлых лет.
2. **Видео-сервисы с бесплатным доступом** — многие популярные видеосервисы предлагают возможность
бесплатного просмотра сериального контента с минимальной рекламой.
3. **Официальные сайты телеканалов** — часто сами производители контента выкладывают свои
сериалы для бесплатного просмотра на официальных ресурсах.
#### Популярные русские сериалы для просмотра
Чтобы вам было проще выбрать, мы составили небольшой список сериалов, которые
точно заслуживают вашего внимания:
1. **”Метод”** — один из самых популярных
российских детективных сериалов.
История о талантливом следователе, который
использует уникальные методы
для поимки серийных убийц.
2. **”Содержанки”** — драма о жизни
светского общества, где за внешним блеском скрываются тайны и интриги.
3. **”Ольга”** — комедийный
сериал о жизни простой женщины,
которая ежедневно сталкивается с множеством проблем, но
всегда находит в себе силы бороться за счастье.
4. **”Мажор”** — драматический сериал о
молодом человеке, который из “золотого мальчика” превращается в серьезного
и ответственного человека,
когда сталкивается с жизненными
трудностями.
5. **”Кухня”** — легендарный комедийный сериал о поварах элитного ресторана.
Легкий, смешной и невероятно динамичный, этот сериал покорил сердца миллионов зрителей.
#### Преимущества бесплатного просмотра сериалов онлайн
Когда вы выбираете **смотреть сериалы онлайн бесплатно**, вы получаете множество преимуществ:
– **Удобство**. Не нужно скачивать файлы или регистрироваться на сомнительных ресурсах.
Вы можете наслаждаться просмотром прямо в браузере на любом устройстве.
– **Доступ к широкому ассортименту**.
Онлайн-платформы предлагают широкий выбор сериалов на любой вкус —
от классики до новинок.
– **Экономия времени и денег**.
Нет необходимости тратить деньги на подписки или DVD-диски.
К тому же, благодаря продуманным
рекомендациям на сайтах, вы быстро найдете сериал, который придется вам по душе.
#### Как выбрать лучший сериал для просмотра?
При таком большом разнообразии бывает
сложно остановить выбор
на одном сериале. Вот несколько советов, которые помогут вам:
– **Определитесь с жанром**.
Если вам нравятся детективы,
выбирайте проекты с расследованиями и интригами.
Для любителей романтики лучше подойдут мелодрамы.
– **Посмотрите отзывы**. Прежде чем начать смотреть сериал, ознакомьтесь с отзывами других зрителей —
это поможет избежать разочарований.
– **Следите за новинками**. Многие новинки сериалов предлагают
свежие идеи и подходы, которые могут вас приятно удивить.
### Заключение
Русские сериалы сегодня предлагают зрителям
великолепный контент с разнообразными сюжетами и актуальными темами.
И самое приятное — многие из этих сериалов
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хорошем качестве. Не упустите шанс насладиться новинками и классикой российского кинематографа, без лишних затрат
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онлайн-казино
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Онлайн-казино предлагают
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Современные онлайн-казино часто имеют раздел
с живыми играми, где игра ведется
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Играть в онлайн-казино можно в любое время и
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Специальные наклейки на заднее или боковые стёкла, которые не мешают обзору
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Безусловно, ключ к захватывающему опыту в азартных играх кроется в высококлассных операторских навыках, которые демонстрируют профессиональные крупье.
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